Trigger Model Development

Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) trigger models are used to trigger humanitarian anticipatory Early Action Protocols (EAPs). So far, we have built models that trigger EAPs for typhoon, flood, dzud, drought and dengue hazards. ​

The Typhoon Trigger Model for instance was developed by 510 on behalf of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) network and its partners, and uses typhoon track and rainfall forecasts to predict the percentage of houses that will be severely damaged per municipality. ​

The prediction of the model is then used to activate humanitarian anticipatory EAPs which aim to mitigate, and to a certain extent prevent, the humanitarian impact of typhoons on people’s homes and livelihoods, while building on governments’ mandatory pre-emptive evacuation procedures that save lives. With the intervention of EAPs, the most at-risk communities will be provided financial resources to prepare prior to a typhoon making landfall. In the Philippines, multi-sectoral assistance is delivered by UN agencies, NGOs and the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement in close collaboration with local authorities. 

IBF Drought Trigger Model inputs in relation to the IBF Trigger timeline