Le rôle des données dans l'élaboration des PAE

Early action awareness raising activity as part of the drought EAP activation in Oromia, Ethiopia, September 2024. © Ethiopian Red Cross Society

To design a data-driven EAP based on state-of-the-art scientific findings, 510 also closely works with students and interns who evaluate the skill and reliability of different forecast models, in particular for hydrometeorological hazards such as floods, droughts and tropical cyclones. This ongoing research is vital as meteorological organizations continue to improve the accuracy of forecast models. Their findings can also inform future EAPs, contributing to 510’s continuous efforts to staying ahead of the curve by building protocols that are not only based on the best current data, but are also adaptable as forecasting technologies evolve.

Sahara Sedhain was one of the students who has driven 510’s early action work forward through meticulous research. Sahara a mis au point une méthode pour comparer deux modèles distincts de prévisions basées sur l'impact for tropical cyclones in the Philippines, one model being relatively simple whereas the other one is more complex and trained on over 40 historical events. Both models have pros and cons, with Sahara’s method making the trade-offs and user choices more transparent and enhancing decision-making in disaster risk management:

“Working with 510 during my research allowed me to not only understand the technical components of impact-based forecasting models, but also to gain insight into the operational side of the team’s ongoing projects and practical field knowledge.”

Sahara Sedhain, ancienne étudiante en recherche au 510

Approches novatrices de la préparation à la sécheresse en Éthiopie

L'activation récente d'un PAE sécheresse par la Société de la Croix-Rouge éthiopienne en prévision de précipitations inférieures à la moyenne pour la période octobre-décembre 2024 est un exemple d'action anticipative efficace et fondée sur des données. L'élaboration de ce PAE et d'autres outils de préparation a été financée par le Fonds mondial de lutte contre le sida, la tuberculose et le paludisme. Fondation IKEAce qui permet d'anticiper et d'agir efficacement. En raison des prévisions saisonnières de sécheresse, la Commission européenne a décidé de mettre en place un système de gestion de l'eau. Pilier d'anticipation of the IFRC’s Disaster Response Emergency Fund (DREF) enabled the translation of these pre-established preparedness measures into concrete activities protecting communities. The EAP activation itself was triggered by the National Society’s instance of the Portail des prévisions basées sur l'impact (IBF), supplemented with technical support by the 510 team. The IBF Portal is used by the Ethiopian Red Cross Society to alert responders ahead of droughts and floods, predicting the impact of the hazards on individual settlements to support targeted preparedness activities. Through the activation of its drought EAP, the Ethiopian Red Cross Society has been able to implement pre-planned, data-informed interventions such as rehabilitating water points, distributing drought-resistant seeds and disseminating early warning messages, before the onset of severe drought impact. This proactive approach has allowed the National Society to act quickly in mitigating long-term vulnerabilities among affected communities, underscoring the value of early action in climate resilience efforts. 

Rapport d'activation du PAE pour les sécheresses déclenchées sur le portail de l'IBF, septembre 2024. (c) Société de la Croix-Rouge éthiopienne

“The local communities are very excited by the quick interventions and actions taken. One of the farmers said that risk communication teams alerted them, encouraging them to use their local methods and indigenous knowledge to cope with the anticipated drought. Such an approach makes the community feel save in preparing actions ahead of time.”

Abraham Tesfaye, point focal pour l'action anticipée à la Croix-Rouge éthiopienne

Le comité de validation du PAE : un forum pour l'examen par les pairs

Another critical aspect of 510’s EAP work lies in the IFRC’s EAP validation committee. This committee, composed of representatives from the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement, plays a key role in ensuring that each EAP meets the high standards required for executing anticipatory action across a wide range of hazards globally. Once a new EAP is submitted, validation committee members are assigned to its review based on expertise and availability. If a member was directly involved in the development of an EAP, its validation will not be assigned to them. 510’s specific responsibility within this committee is to review the EAPs’ trigger elements which necessitates a deep understanding of both the available data and the local context in which the EAP will be implemented. This work is possible thanks to funding from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands. In 2024 alone, the team has contributed to the review of seven EAPs, providing crucial insights that help shape the protocols’ final structure and ensure they are actionable and reliable.

Le personnel et les volontaires de la Croix-Rouge éthiopienne diffusent des semences tolérantes à la sécheresse as part of the preparedness activities outlined in the drought EAP, September 2024. © Ethiopian Red Cross Society

Une pierre angulaire de l'action anticipée

Les PAE sont une composante essentielle des opérations d'urgence, permettant aux organisations humanitaires de réagir avant que les catastrophes ne s'aggravent. En collaborant avec des partenaires du Mouvement de la Croix-Rouge et du Croissant-Rouge pour mettre l'accent sur des PAE fondés sur des données et en s'engageant auprès de jeunes universitaires, le 510 contribue à créer des protocoles de haute qualité qui sauvent des vies. En fin de compte, en travaillant ensemble et en exploitant le pouvoir des données, on peut s'assurer que l'action anticipative continue à devenir plus fiable et plus efficace avec chaque nouveau PAE développé ou révisé, générant ainsi un avenir plus résilient.

Nous voulons vous entendre !

Are you interested in hearing more about our EAP work, or implementing a similar solution within your National Society’s context? Please reach out to:

Coordinateur de services, Action anticipée : Aklilu Teklesadik ateklesadik@redcross.nl