El papel de los datos en el desarrollo de los PAE

Early action awareness raising activity as part of the drought EAP activation in Oromia, Ethiopia, September 2024. © Ethiopian Red Cross Society

To design a data-driven EAP based on state-of-the-art scientific findings, 510 also closely works with students and interns who evaluate the skill and reliability of different forecast models, in particular for hydrometeorological hazards such as floods, droughts and tropical cyclones. This ongoing research is vital as meteorological organizations continue to improve the accuracy of forecast models. Their findings can also inform future EAPs, contributing to 510’s continuous efforts to staying ahead of the curve by building protocols that are not only based on the best current data, but are also adaptable as forecasting technologies evolve.

Sahara Sedhain was one of the students who has driven 510’s early action work forward through meticulous research. Sahara ha desarrollado un método para comparar dos modelos distintos de previsión basados en el impacto for tropical cyclones in the Philippines, one model being relatively simple whereas the other one is more complex and trained on over 40 historical events. Both models have pros and cons, with Sahara’s method making the trade-offs and user choices more transparent and enhancing decision-making in disaster risk management:

“Working with 510 during my research allowed me to not only understand the technical components of impact-based forecasting models, but also to gain insight into the operational side of the team’s ongoing projects and practical field knowledge.”

Sahara Sedhain, antigua estudiante investigadora en 510

Enfoques innovadores para la preparación ante la sequía en Etiopía

Un ejemplo de acción anticipatoria eficaz y basada en datos es la reciente activación de un plan de acción para la sequía por parte de la Cruz Roja Etíope en previsión de lluvias por debajo de la media entre octubre y diciembre de 2024. El desarrollo de este PAE y de otras herramientas de preparación fue financiado por el Fundación IKEALa Comisión Europea ha elaborado un informe sobre la sequía, que permite anticiparse y actuar con eficacia. Impulsada por la previsión de sequía estacional, la Pilar de anticipación of the IFRC’s Disaster Response Emergency Fund (DREF) enabled the translation of these pre-established preparedness measures into concrete activities protecting communities. The EAP activation itself was triggered by the National Society’s instance of the Portal de previsiones basadas en el impacto (IBF), supplemented with technical support by the 510 team. The IBF Portal is used by the Ethiopian Red Cross Society to alert responders ahead of droughts and floods, predicting the impact of the hazards on individual settlements to support targeted preparedness activities. Through the activation of its drought EAP, the Ethiopian Red Cross Society has been able to implement pre-planned, data-informed interventions such as rehabilitating water points, distributing drought-resistant seeds and disseminating early warning messages, before the onset of severe drought impact. This proactive approach has allowed the National Society to act quickly in mitigating long-term vulnerabilities among affected communities, underscoring the value of early action in climate resilience efforts. 

Informe de activación del EAP para sequías desencadenadas en el Portal del IBF, septiembre de 2024. (c) Cruz Roja Etíope

“The local communities are very excited by the quick interventions and actions taken. One of the farmers said that risk communication teams alerted them, encouraging them to use their local methods and indigenous knowledge to cope with the anticipated drought. Such an approach makes the community feel save in preparing actions ahead of time.”

Abraham Tesfaye, punto focal de Acción Anticipatoria de la Cruz Roja Etíope

El comité de validación del PAE: un foro para la revisión inter pares

Another critical aspect of 510’s EAP work lies in the IFRC’s EAP validation committee. This committee, composed of representatives from the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement, plays a key role in ensuring that each EAP meets the high standards required for executing anticipatory action across a wide range of hazards globally. Once a new EAP is submitted, validation committee members are assigned to its review based on expertise and availability. If a member was directly involved in the development of an EAP, its validation will not be assigned to them. 510’s specific responsibility within this committee is to review the EAPs’ trigger elements which necessitates a deep understanding of both the available data and the local context in which the EAP will be implemented. This work is possible thanks to funding from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands. In 2024 alone, the team has contributed to the review of seven EAPs, providing crucial insights that help shape the protocols’ final structure and ensure they are actionable and reliable.

Personal y voluntarios de la Cruz Roja Etíope difunden semillas tolerantes a la sequía as part of the preparedness activities outlined in the drought EAP, September 2024. © Ethiopian Red Cross Society

Una piedra angular de la acción anticipatoria

Los PAE son un componente esencial de las operaciones de emergencia, pues permiten a las organizaciones humanitarias responder antes de que los desastres se agraven. Al colaborar con socios de todo el Movimiento Internacional de la Cruz Roja y de la Media Luna Roja para hacer hincapié en los PAE basados en datos y colaborar con jóvenes académicos, la 510 contribuye a crear protocolos de alta calidad que salvan vidas. En última instancia, el trabajo conjunto y el aprovechamiento del poder de los datos pueden garantizar que la acción anticipatoria siga siendo más fiable e impactante con cada nuevo PAE desarrollado o revisado, generando un futuro más resiliente.

Queremos conocer su opinión.

Are you interested in hearing more about our EAP work, or implementing a similar solution within your National Society’s context? Please reach out to:

Coordinador de servicios, Acción Anticipatoria: Aklilu Teklesadik ateklesadik@redcross.nl