Modelos localizados de inundaciones para combatir la subida de las aguas en Malawi

Over the past five decades, Malawi has experienced 21 major floods, with projections of these events further increasing in frequency and severity due to climate change. The impact of these floods is huge: homes and farmlands are destroyed; livelihoods are at risk; and children’s education is interrupted. On top, damaged sanitation facilities expose communities to disease outbreaks such as cholera, and destroyed infrastructure leaves many disconnected from much-needed supplies and information. In anticipation of and response to such events, the Cruz Roja de Malawi toma la iniciativa de ofrecer servicios oportunos en todo el país para el socorro inmediato y la recuperación a largo plazo, cubriendo diversas necesidades de supervivencia de los afectados.

En la incesante lucha contra la amenaza cada vez mayor de inundaciones en el país, una nueva iniciativa defiende modelos localizados de inundaciones para la acción anticipatoria y eleva el juego integrándolos en la Portal de previsiones basadas en el impacto (IBF). This dynamic combination enhances precision, efficacy, and forecast quality for those working to reduce the devastating impact of floods. Initiated and funded by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), este proyecto está cofinanciado por Brazo y Socios para el aguay aplicada por el Cruz Roja de Malawi, Royal Haskoning DHVy el Netherlands Red Cross’ data and digital initiative, 510. It is further supported by Malawi’s national authorities for water resources, meteorological services and disaster management, the Universidad de MalawiEl Academia Africana de Drones y Datos y Globhe. While Royal Haskoning DHV developed the localized flood model, 510 integrated it into the IBF Portal. Government authorities and humanitarian organizations such as the Malawi Red Cross Society now utilize this system to inform their disaster management activities ahead of extreme weather which could turn into floods.

Precise forecasting – amplified by the IBF Portal

Localized flood models can accurately forecast and anticipate region-specific events, resulting in a more efficient allocation of resources and ultimately minimizing the overall economic and human costs associated with flood disasters. Combined with the IBF Portal and weather forecasts produced by the national weather service, the precision of Royal Haskoning DHV’s localized flood model is taken to new heights. The IBF Portal serves as a digital one-stop-shop to support the decision-making of disaster managers by displaying information on the impact of an incoming disaster at the right time for them to be able to act and in turn, save more lives. Through its compatibility with localized models and other real-time data sources, the portal ensures that forecasts are not only localized but also up-to-the-minute. This way, anticipatory action professionals are empowered to dynamically anticipate, mitigate, and respond to the evolving nature of flood events. The IBF Portal is further able to identify at-risk infrastructure such as water points, schools, and health clinics, allowing disaster managers to tailor their solutions to the unique challenges and needs of each community.

“This rain season, we tested the IBF Portal for the first time to predict floods and their impact in Northern Malawi. Once heavy rains started, we noticed that stakeholders were awaiting warnings coming from the IBF Portal, which showed that they are excited about it and expect it to support them with alerts and flood preparedness.”

Tautvydas Juskauskas, Especialista en Innovación de UNICEF

Con la oportunidad de predecir mejor y mitigar el impacto de las próximas inundaciones, se hace posible llegar a los miembros de la comunidad con información que puede salvar vidas. En pos de este objetivo, la Cruz Roja de Malawi trabaja en estrecha colaboración con los comités de protección de las aldeas para garantizar que las comunidades reciban la información más relevante para ellas, en su propio idioma local y a través de los canales de comunicación que prefieran y en los que confíen. Como parte de esta iniciativa, 510 llevó a cabo un ejercicio con la Cruz Roja de Malawi, UNICEF y otras partes interesadas para conectar el portal del IBF con estas estructuras y procesos preexistentes para la participación de la comunidad. Con el resultado de este ejercicio, se puede crear una guía clara, que describa los pasos clave y las responsabilidades para la difusión oportuna de alertas tempranas a las comunidades que están a punto de verse afectadas por inundaciones.

“In cooperation with stakeholders in-country, we aimed to create accurate warnings for the area of interest. The testing phase during the extreme wet season confirmed the system’s value, and we are on track to optimize it into an accurate impact-based flood warning system that can be scaled up for the rest of Malawi.”

Herman de Jonge, Director de Proyectos y Consultor Senior de Gestión del Agua y Resiliencia en Royal Haskoning DHV

In Malawi’s battle against climate-induced floods, the collaboration between localized flood models and the IBF Portal emerges as a game-changer. By augmenting the precision of localized models with the impact forecasting capabilities of the IBF Portal, designed with and for disaster managers, anticipatory action professionals are equipped to navigate the complexity of flood events with unparalleled accuracy. As we witness the fusion of technology and local expertise, localized flood models in combination with the IBF Portal can ensure that communities are informed and safeguarded against the rising waters of uncertainty.