As climate change intensifies the humanitarian landscape, proactive approaches are needed to lessen the impact of disasters by taking steps to protect lives and livelihoods ahead of time. To deliver context-specific early action, National Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies often have an Early Action Protocol (EAP) in place – a formal plan that enables quick release of funding and outlines pre-defined actions to save lives and livelihoods, triggered once a hazard is forecasted to impact communities. The Netherlands Red Cross’ data and digital team, 510, works with National Societies, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (FICR), the Centre climatique de la Croix-Rouge et du Croissant-Rouge, and key national stakeholders such as meteorological, hydrological and disaster management authorities to develop data-driven EAPs in anticipation of a variety of hazards, based on up-to-the-minute research.
The role of data in developing EAPs
When collaborating with National Societies in developing EAPs, 510 leverages cutting-edge data analysis and predictive modelling. Using vulnerability data, 510 helps create maps that identify at-risk areas once the hazard forecast is available. Historical impact data is used to train forecast models and define a trigger level which guides the activation of early interventions. This way, decision-making in disaster management is based on data, ensuring that the chosen triggers perform reliably and are specific to the local context. To date, 510 has directly supported or contributed to the development of around 20 EAPS.
To design a data-driven EAP based on state-of-the-art scientific findings, 510 also closely works with students and interns who evaluate the skill and reliability of different forecast models, in particular for hydrometeorological hazards such as floods, droughts and tropical cyclones. This ongoing research is vital as meteorological organizations continue to improve the accuracy of forecast models. Their findings can also inform future EAPs, contributing to 510’s continuous efforts to staying ahead of the curve by building protocols that are not only based on the best current data, but are also adaptable as forecasting technologies evolve.
Sahara Sedhain was one of the students who has driven 510’s early action work forward through meticulous research. Sahara developed a method to compare two distinct impact-based forecasting models for tropical cyclones in the Philippines, one model being relatively simple whereas the other one is more complex and trained on over 40 historical events. Both models have pros and cons, with Sahara’s method making the trade-offs and user choices more transparent and enhancing decision-making in disaster risk management:
“Working with 510 during my research allowed me to not only understand the technical components of impact-based forecasting models, but also to gain insight into the operational side of the team’s ongoing projects and practical field knowledge.”
Sahara Sedhain, former research student at 510
Innovative approaches to drought preparedness in Ethiopia
One example of effective, data-driven anticipatory action is the recent activation of a drought EAP by the Ethiopian Red Cross Society in anticipation of forecasted below-average rainfall for October-December 2024. The development of this EAP and other preparedness tools was funded by the Fondation IKEA, making it possible to anticipate and act effectively. Prompted by the seasonal drought forecast, the Anticipatory Pillar of the FICR’s Disaster Response Emergency Fund (DREF) enabled the translation of these pre-established preparedness measures into concrete activities protecting communities. The EAP activation itself was triggered by the National Society’s instance of the Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) Portal, supplemented with technical support by the 510 team. The IBF Portal is used by the Ethiopian Red Cross Society to alert responders ahead of droughts and floods, predicting the impact of the hazards on individual settlements to support targeted preparedness activities. Through the activation of its drought EAP, the Ethiopian Red Cross Society has been able to implement pre-planned, data-informed interventions such as rehabilitating water points, distributing drought-resistant seeds and disseminating early warning messages, before the onset of severe drought impact. This proactive approach has allowed the National Society to act quickly in mitigating long-term vulnerabilities among affected communities, underscoring the value of early action in climate resilience efforts.
“The local communities are very excited by the quick interventions and actions taken. One of the farmers said that risk communication teams alerted them, encouraging them to use their local methods and indigenous knowledge to cope with the anticipated drought. Such an approach makes the community feel save in preparing actions ahead of time.”
Abraham Tesfaye, Anticipatory Action focal point at the Ethiopian Red Cross Society
The EAP validation committee: a forum for peer review
Another critical aspect of 510’s EAP work lies in the IFRC’s EAP validation committee. This committee, composed of representatives from the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement, plays a key role in ensuring that each EAP meets the high standards required for executing anticipatory action across a wide range of hazards globally. Once a new EAP is submitted, validation committee members are assigned to its review based on expertise and availability. If a member was directly involved in the development of an EAP, its validation will not be assigned to them. 510’s specific responsibility within this committee is to review the EAPs’ trigger elements which necessitates a deep understanding of both the available data and the local context in which the EAP will be implemented. This work is possible thanks to funding from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands. In 2024 alone, the team has contributed to the review of seven EAPs, providing crucial insights that help shape the protocols’ final structure and ensure they are actionable and reliable.
A cornerstone of anticipatory action
EAPs are a critical component of emergency operations, allowing humanitarian organizations to respond before disasters escalate. By collaborating with partners across the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement on emphasising data-driven EAPs and engaging with young academics, 510 contributes to creating high-quality protocols that save lives. Ultimately, working together and leveraging the power of data can ensure that anticipatory action continues to become more reliable and impactful with each new EAP developed or reviewed, generating a more resilient future.
DISCLAIMER: Please note that the Arabic, French and Spanish versions of this article were automatically generated using Artificial Intelligence. We cannot guarantee full accuracy of these versions.
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Are you interested in hearing more about our EAP work, or implementing a similar solution within your National Society’s context? Please reach out to:
Service coordinator, Anticipatory Action: Aklilu Teklesadik ateklesadik@redcross.nl