الاستفادة من نماذج الفيضانات المحلية في معركة ملاوي ضد ارتفاع منسوب المياه

Over the past five decades, Malawi has experienced 21 major floods, with projections of these events further increasing in frequency and severity due to climate change. The impact of these floods is huge: homes and farmlands are destroyed; livelihoods are at risk; and children’s education is interrupted. On top, damaged sanitation facilities expose communities to disease outbreaks such as cholera, and destroyed infrastructure leaves many disconnected from much-needed supplies and information. In anticipation of and response to such events, the جمعية الصليب الأحمر في ملاوي تتولى زمام المبادرة في تقديم الخدمات في الوقت المناسب في جميع أنحاء البلاد للإغاثة الفورية والتعافي على المدى الطويل، وتغطية احتياجات البقاء المختلفة للمتضررين.

في النضال الدؤوب ضد التهديد المتزايد للفيضانات في البلاد، تدعم مبادرة جديدة نماذج الفيضانات المحلية للعمل الاستباقي وترفع من مستوى اللعبة من خلال دمجها في بوابة التنبؤ المبني على التأثير (IBF). This dynamic combination enhances precision, efficacy, and forecast quality for those working to reduce the devastating impact of floods. Initiated and funded by the United Nations Children’s Fund (اليونيسيف), هذا المشروع ممول بشكل مشترك من قبل ذراع و شركاء من أجل المياه، وتم تنفيذها من قبل جمعية الصليب الأحمر في ملاوي، رويال هاسكونينج DHV، و Netherlands Red Cross’ data and digital initiative, 510. It is further supported by Malawi’s national authorities for water resources, meteorological services and disaster management, the جامعة ملاوي، ال الأكاديمية الأفريقية للطائرات بدون طيار والبيانات و جلوبي. While Royal Haskoning DHV developed the localized flood model, 510 integrated it into the IBF Portal. Government authorities and humanitarian organizations such as the Malawi Red Cross Society now utilize this system to inform their disaster management activities ahead of extreme weather which could turn into floods.

Precise forecasting – amplified by the IBF Portal

Localized flood models can accurately forecast and anticipate region-specific events, resulting in a more efficient allocation of resources and ultimately minimizing the overall economic and human costs associated with flood disasters. Combined with the IBF Portal and weather forecasts produced by the national weather service, the precision of Royal Haskoning DHV’s localized flood model is taken to new heights. The IBF Portal serves as a digital one-stop-shop to support the decision-making of disaster managers by displaying information on the impact of an incoming disaster at the right time for them to be able to act and in turn, save more lives. Through its compatibility with localized models and other real-time data sources, the portal ensures that forecasts are not only localized but also up-to-the-minute. This way, anticipatory action professionals are empowered to dynamically anticipate, mitigate, and respond to the evolving nature of flood events. The IBF Portal is further able to identify at-risk infrastructure such as water points, schools, and health clinics, allowing disaster managers to tailor their solutions to the unique challenges and needs of each community.

“This rain season, we tested the IBF Portal for the first time to predict floods and their impact in Northern Malawi. Once heavy rains started, we noticed that stakeholders were awaiting warnings coming from the IBF Portal, which showed that they are excited about it and expect it to support them with alerts and flood preparedness.”

تاتفيداس جوسكاوسكاس، أخصائي الابتكار في اليونيسف

مع إتاحة الفرصة للتنبؤ بشكل أفضل بالفيضانات القادمة والتخفيف من تأثيرها، أصبح من الممكن الوصول إلى أعضاء المجتمع بمعلومات قد تنقذ حياتهم. وفي سعيه لتحقيق هذا الهدف، تعمل جمعية الصليب الأحمر في مالاوي بشكل وثيق مع لجان حماية القرى لضمان حصول المجتمعات على المعلومات الأكثر صلة بها، بلغتها المحلية ومن خلال قنوات الاتصال التي تفضلها وتثق بها. وكجزء من هذه المبادرة، أجرت جمعية 510 تمرينًا مع جمعية الصليب الأحمر في مالاوي واليونيسيف وأصحاب المصلحة الآخرين لربط بوابة IBF بهذه الهياكل والعمليات القائمة مسبقًا لإشراك المجتمع. وبنتيجة هذا التمرين، يمكن إنشاء دليل واضح يحدد الخطوات والمسؤوليات الرئيسية لنشر التحذيرات المبكرة في الوقت المناسب للمجتمعات التي على وشك التأثر بالفيضانات.

“In cooperation with stakeholders in-country, we aimed to create accurate warnings for the area of interest. The testing phase during the extreme wet season confirmed the system’s value, and we are on track to optimize it into an accurate impact-based flood warning system that can be scaled up for the rest of Malawi.”

هيرمان دي جونج، مدير المشروع ومستشار أول لإدارة المياه والمرونة في Royal Haskoning DHV

In Malawi’s battle against climate-induced floods, the collaboration between localized flood models and the IBF Portal emerges as a game-changer. By augmenting the precision of localized models with the impact forecasting capabilities of the IBF Portal, designed with and for disaster managers, anticipatory action professionals are equipped to navigate the complexity of flood events with unparalleled accuracy. As we witness the fusion of technology and local expertise, localized flood models in combination with the IBF Portal can ensure that communities are informed and safeguarded against the rising waters of uncertainty.